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Don't Look at the Wall

Updated: Apr 1, 2020

Don’t look at the wall, if you look at the wall you are going to hit the wall."

-- Mario Andretti


Hoping you are keeping healthy — we are physically distancing but not shutting down. Deals are still happening (primarily in the lower price points), escrows are mostly staying together, although with extensions and in some cases price adjustments. Certainly, now more than ever, Montecito and all of the Central Coast are a sanctuary in an unpredictable world. We look forward to keeping in touch and will be researching, re-grouping, reflecting and ready.


TODAY’S MESSAGE: DON’T PANIC.

Recession Does Not Always Equal Housing Crisis

The economic crisis of 2008 is unforgettable, however we need to remember that several economic downturns resulted in appreciated home values.

Of the last five recessions in U.S. history, three of them saw increases. Two of those three saw prices appreciate faster than the historical average.

Historically, recessions are not caused by housing alone.



POSITIVE NEWS FOR 2020

The market conditions are NOT the same as they were in 2008. Prior to the Coronavirus Pandemic, the housing market was coming off a very strong 2019 and home prices were forecasted to continue to rise.

LOOKING FOR REAL NEWS, NOT SPIN.

Let’s make sure we aren’t paralyzed by a headline before we get the full story.

When it comes to the health issue, you should look to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) or the World Health Organization (WHO) for the most reliable information.


Finding reliable resources with information on the economic impact of the virus is more difficult. For this reason, it’s important to shed some light on the situation.

1. Goldman Sachs Forecasts the Largest Drop in GDP in Almost 100 Years

The headline doesn’t reflect the full Goldman Sachs forecast. The projection is actually that we’ll have a tough first half of the year, but the economy will bounce back nicely in the second half; GDP will be up 12% in the third quarter and up another 10% in the fourth.

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