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“Re-shuffling” Part Three

As appreciation soars and priced-out buyers seek to relocate this spring, the "third migration" of buyers may be upon us.

The last couple of years has brought about two "waves" in the real estate market:


Americans fled denser cities in search of more space at home and outdoors. Secondary markets flourished.


Companies stopped stringing along expected returns to the office, remote-work policies became permanent and the migration dug in its heels.

What's Next?

If those were the first and second waves of the COVID housing market, the third doesn’t have to do with a virus. It’s about high prices and low inventory pushing people to move to new markets all over the country.

“We’re going to see migration for more income levels and more job types in the third wave, as opposed to just the elite tech workers." - Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin

The third wave is coming this spring, as Montecito, Santa Barbara and other communities like it across the country are experiencing historically low inventory and record-high prices.

The Makings of a Third Wave

“Inventory is 50 percent less than it was a year ago. That’s really almost across the board. Every sector. Every price range,” said Gerry Liguori, a broker/owner at Premier Estate Properties in south Florida.

Across the country people are selling small, high-priced homes along the coast and buying something much bigger in the Golden State’s more conservative inland regions. Brokers say the rapid buying of homes has effectively sped up price appreciation.

We have seen this appreciation phenomenon take place first hand in Montecito and across Santa Barbara County (see charts below). You can read more about our local appreciation here.

Will the trend continue and the third wave prove to be as substantial as many predict? Time will tell.

Read the full InMan article here.

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